Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Report 2025

This report presents an overview of Tasmania’s greenhouse gas emissions (called ‘emissions’ in this report) sources and sinks from 1990 to 2023. The report details emissions from goods and services produced in, and exported from, Tasmania.

Emissions are reported in financial years to 30 June, so the year 2023 refers to the financial year 1 July 2022 to 30 June 2023. This report uses the most recent official data in Australia on annual emissions. The data are prepared and released by the Australian Government, in accordance with agreed international reporting frameworks and guidelines.

Under Tasmania’s climate change legislation, the Climate Change (State Action) Act 2008, Tasmania has an emissions reduction target of net zero emissions, or lower, from 2030. The legislation requires the government to prepare a report about Tasmania’s greenhouse gas emissions and our progress towards achieving our emissions reduction target.

The Climate Change (Greenhouse Gas Emissions) Regulations 2022 require the responsible Minister to publish Tasmania’s greenhouse gas emissions for the calendar year to which the Australian Government’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory relates.

Greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere and make the earth warmer. These gases occur naturally but are also produced by human activities.

Gases with the most significant impact on global warming are water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane, and nitrous oxide. Other common greenhouse gases include hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulphur hexafluoride.

Each greenhouse gas varies in terms of its contribution to climate change. Global warming potentials (GWPs) are values that allow direct comparison of the impact of the different greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by comparing how much energy one tonne (t) of a gas will absorb compared to one tonne of carbon dioxide. The consistent value of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-e) has the lowest GWP factor of one. All other greenhouse gases have a GWP which is a certain number of times greater than carbon dioxide, as shown in the table below.

Table 1: Global Warming Potential of greenhouse gases

For example, 1 tonne of methane results in the equivalent global warming of 28 tonnes of carbon dioxide, and is therefore measured as 28 t CO₂-e.

Plants, soils, and oceans can remove more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than they emit. The removed carbon is stored, often in the form of growing vegetation. This process is known as sequestration. An area that stores a lot of carbon, like a forest, is called a ‘carbon sink’.

Reporting framework

Tasmania’s emissions are reported in accordance with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reporting framework for national greenhouse gas inventories. This framework is used by the 198 members who are signed up to the international United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to report their greenhouse gas inventories. (Note:  While the United States of America has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, they remain a party to the UNFCCC.)

Data source – Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Accounts

The main source of data on Tasmania’s emissions is the Australian Government’s State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories (STGGI). The STGGI is a disaggregation of the data contained in Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Accounts and the National Inventory Report (NIR).

To meet our international greenhouse gas inventory reporting commitments, including compliance with the Paris Agreement, the Australian Government submits the NIR to the UNFCCC every year.

For the first year of the Paris Agreement reporting period, which is the financial year 2020-21, and onwards, estimates of Australia’s emissions are compiled consistent with:

• procedures and guidelines in the Paris Agreement, particularly Article 13
• the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (the Guidelines)
• the IPCC 2019 Refinement of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines
• the IPCC 2013 Wetlands Supplement
• country-specific methodologies consistent with the Guidelines and intended to improve emissions accuracy.

Australia mostly uses country-specific methodologies and emission factors to compile NIRs. The methodologies used to estimate Australia’s inventory have been improved over time and will continue to be refined as new information emerges, and as international best practice evolves.

The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) is responsible for Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions reporting. DCCEEW is responsible for all aspects of the national inventory systems, including activity data coordination, emissions estimation, quality control, and preparation of reports. DCCEEW submits the reports to the UNFCCC on behalf of the Australian Government.

The NIR runs two years behind the current date and represents the most recent official data in Australia on annual emissions. The current NIR shows estimates of Australia’s emissions for the period 1990 to 2023. As historical figures are revised each year, to account for recalculations and methodology changes, the latest NIR data cannot be compared with reports from previous years.

Under the UNFCCC, the NIR must report net emissions from the following sectors:

• energy
• industrial processes and product use (IPPU)
• agriculture
• land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF)
• waste.

For the purposes of this report, the energy sector is broken down into three sub-sectors:

• electricity generation
• the direct combustion of fuels from all other forms of stationary energy, excluding electricity generation (direct combustion)
• transport.

Within the STGGI, electricity generation is reported under the energy sub-sector ‘energy industries’. In this report, ‘direct combustion’ for Tasmanian emissions has been aggregated to include the STGGI energy sub-sectors of ‘fugitive emissions’, ‘manufacturing industries and construction’ and ‘other sectors’.

The STGGI data relate to production-based, rather than consumption-based emissions in Tasmania, which are called scope 1 emissions. This means that the data account for emissions from goods and services produced in Tasmania, rather than from goods and services that are imported and consumed.

Confidential information

As part of the National Energy and Greenhouse Reporting Scheme, the Australian Government treats some data as confidential. These data are aggregated with other sectors before publication. This happens when reporting at a sub-sector level could lead to the disclosure of commercially-sensitive emissions data reported by an organisation.

For example, there are very few industrial sites that produce fugitive emissions in Tasmania, so the Australian Government treats Tasmania’s fugitive emissions as confidential to avoid identification of individual businesses.

This rule also applies to emissions from the ‘metal industry’, and ‘other’ sub-sectors, including ‘pulp and paper’ and ‘food and beverage industry’, which are reported as combined emissions in the IPPU sector.

Data source – Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

This report also compares the time series of Tasmania’s emissions to the state’s Gross State Product (GSP) and population from 1990 to June 2023. GSP data were sourced from the ABS Australian National Accounts: State Accounts (Cat No 5220.0).

Tasmania’s population data are sourced from ABS National, State and Territory Population (Cat No 3101.0).

Units of measure

Greenhouse gases are often reported in megatonnes (Mt) CO₂-e, where 1 Mt of CO₂-e is equal to 1,000 kilotonnes (kt) CO₂-e and 1 kt of CO₂-e is equal to 1,000 t.

Discrepancies in table totals

Data in the tables of this report are sourced directly from the STGGI. Any discrepancy between table totals and the sum of sectors and sub-sectors reflects rounding anomalies and/or the inclusion of confidential emissions data.

Variations in chart scaling

The sector-specific charts in this report are plotted on different scales to make them easier to read and may not be directly comparable with each other.

In 2023, Tasmania’s emissions were minus 4.93 Mt CO₂-e. Tasmania’s emissions decreased by 24.48 Mt CO₂-e between 1990 and 2023, which is a reduction of 125.2 per cent.

There is a clear downward trend in Tasmania’s net annual emissions from 1990 to 2023 (Figure 1). Tasmania first achieved net negative emissions in 2014 and has maintained this level each year to 2023.

Figure 1: Tasmania's emissions by sector and energy sub-sector - 1990 to 2023

Changes in the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector have resulted in increased carbon sequestration, which has had a major influence on reducing Tasmania’s greenhouse gas emissions. LULUCF emissions were 24.54 Mt CO₂-e (Table 2), or 218.4 per cent, lower than 1990 levels.

Figure 2: Tasmania's emissions by sector and energy sub-sector, excluding LULUCF - 1990 to 2023

Excluding LULUCF, Tasmania’s emissions in 2023 were 8.37 Mt CO₂-e. This is an increase of 0.06 Mt CO₂-e between 1990 and 2023.

Tasmania’s emissions, excluding LULUCF, were lowest in 2000 (7.37 Mt CO₂-e), highest in 2013 (8.70 Mt CO₂-e), and averaged 8.02 Mt CO₂-e between 1990 and 2023.

Emissions reductions

Reductions in emissions from 1990 to 2023:

• energy sector (down 0.12 Mt CO₂-e)
• waste sector (down 0.14 Mt CO₂-e)
• electricity generation sub‑sector (down 0.43 Mt CO₂-e).

Emissions increases

Increases in emissions over the period 1990 to 2023:

• agriculture sector (up 0.12 Mt CO₂-e)
• transport sub-sector (up 0.13 Mt CO₂-e)
• direct combustion sub-sector (up 0.18 Mt CO₂-e)
• IPPU sector (up 0.20 Mt CO₂-e).

Table 2: Tasmania's emissions by sector and energy sub-sector - 1990 to 2023

In 2023, Tasmania had the lowest emissions per person of any Australian jurisdiction, at minus 8.6 t CO₂‑e per person (Figure 3). This is the only negative emissions figure per person of any Australian jurisdiction. The national average is 17.0 t CO₂-e per person.

Figure 3: Tasmania's emissions per person relative to Australia and other states and territories - 2023

Tasmania’s emissions per person have decreased from 42.3 t CO₂-e in 1990 to minus 8.6 t CO₂-e in 2023, a reduction of 120.3 per cent (-50.9 t CO₂-e) over since 1990 (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Change in Tasmania's emissions per person - 1990 to 2023

When emissions from the LULUCF sector are excluded, the percentage change in Tasmania’s emissions per person relative to the baseline year of 1990 also declines, while Tasmania’s population has steadily grown (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Percentage change in Tasmania's population and emissions per person against 1990 baseline - 1990 to 2023

Tasmania’s emissions and Gross State Product

From 1990 to 2023, Tasmania’s real Gross State Product (GSP) increased by 119.5 per cent (to over $40 billion) while Tasmania’s emissions decreased by 125.2 per cent (Figure 6).

Figure 6: Change in Tasmanian emissions and real Gross State Product - 1990 to 2023

The increase in Tasmania’s GSP, coupled with the decrease in Tasmania’s emissions, has resulted in a reduction in the emissions intensity of the Tasmanian economy, from 1,070.8 to minus 123.1 t CO₂-e per million dollars of GSP (a reduction of 111.5 per cent) (Figure 7).

When the emissions from the LULUCF sector are excluded, the emissions intensity of Tasmania’s economy demonstrates a downward trend, declining from 455.4.3 t CO_2‑e to 209.0 t CO₂-e per million dollars of GSP between 1990 and 2023, which is a reduction of 54.1 per cent over this period.

Figure 7: Percentage change in Tasmania's real GSP and emissions intensity against 1990 baseline - 1990 to 2023

Tasmania’s contribution to national emissions

In 2023, Tasmania helped reduce Australia’s total emissions (453.45 Mt CO₂-e) by 1.1 per cent (Figure 8).

Figure 8: Tasmania's contribution to national emissions - 2023

This chapter details Tasmania’s emissions by the IPCC sectors of energy, agriculture, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), waste, and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF).

The energy sector is disaggregated into three sub-sectors: electricity generation, direct combustion (of fuels for stationary energy uses), and transport.

Tasmania’s emissions in 2023 were minus 4.93 Mt CO₂-e. Emissions by sector and energy sub‑sector are shown in Figure 9.

• The LULUCF sector provided net sequestration of emissions (a carbon sink) of minus 13.31 Mt CO₂‑e, offsetting emissions from all other sectors.
• Excluding LULUCF, other sectors contributed 8.37 Mt CO₂-e to Tasmania’s emissions, as follows: energy (42.7 per cent), agriculture (32.9 per cent), IPPU (19.3 per cent), and waste (5.1 per cent).
• Excluding LULUCF, the energy sub-sectors accounted for the following share of total emissions: transport (19.8 per cent of emissions), direct combustion (21.2 per cent) and electricity generation (1.7 per cent).

Figure 9: Tasmanian emissions by sector and energy sub-sectors - 2023

Figure 10 highlights the differences in the relative contribution of each sector and energy sub‑sector for each Australian jurisdiction’s emissions. The LULUCF sector has been excluded from this analysis. The Australian Capital Territory has a unique emissions profile, as most of its electricity is supplied from renewable sources in New South Wales.

Tasmania’s emissions profile differs from other Australian states and territories, due to much lower contributions from the electricity generation sub-sector. Emissions from Tasmania’s transport, direct combustion, IPPU and agriculture sectors make a larger relative contribution to the state’s total emissions than in most other jurisdictions.

Figure 10: Relative contribution of each sector and energy sub-sector to an Australian state or territory's emissions, excluding LULUCF - 2023

Tasmania’s energy sector comprises electricity generation, direct combustion, transport, and fugitive emissions. There are very few sites that produce fugitive emissions in Tasmania, so the Australian Government treats Tasmania’s fugitive emissions as confidential to avoid identification of individual organisations.

For this report, ‘fugitive emissions’, ‘manufacturing industries and construction’ and ‘other’ sub-sectors are included in direct combustion. Tasmania’s energy sector contributed 3.58 Mt CO₂-e in 2023, accounting for 42.7 per cent of Tasmania’s emissions when LULUCF is excluded.

Compared to other states and territories (Figure 10), Tasmania has high levels of renewable electricity generation. This means most of Tasmania’s energy emissions are attributed to direct combustion and transport (Table 3).

Table 3: Breakdown of Tasmanian emissions by energy sub-sector (excluding LULUCF) 2023

Sources of emissions from the agriculture sector include livestock digestive systems (enteric fermentation), the release of nitrous oxide from cropping and pastureland, and manure management. Agricultural emissions comprise:

• enteric fermentation of plant material that is digested by livestock (for example, cattle, sheep, and pigs) that results in methane emissions
• urine and dung deposited by grazing animals, and nitrogen leaching and run-off, resulting in emissions from microbial and chemical transformations that produce and consume nitrous oxide in the soil
• manure management practices that produce emissions through the anaerobic (without oxygen) decomposition of the organic matter contained in manure
• land management practices such as lime, fertiliser and urea applications, that produce nitrous oxide emissions.

Tasmania’s agriculture sector accounted for 2.76 Mt CO₂-e, which was 32.9 per cent of Tasmania’s emissions, excluding LULUCF (Figure 14). The emissions from agriculture increased by 0.12 Mt CO₂-e (4.7 per cent) between 1990 and 2023.

Emissions associated with the use of electricity and fuel consumption from operating agricultural equipment, and the fuel consumption used to transport farm products, are accounted for in the energy sector. Emissions associated with land use change, including the clearing and re-clearing of vegetation, are accounted for in the LULUCF sector.

Figure 14: Tasmanian emissions from agriculture - 1990 to 2023

Emissions from the IPPU sector are generated from a range of production processes that include the calcination of carbonate compounds (for example, cement, lime or glass production), carbon when used as a chemical reductant (for example, iron, steel or aluminium production), and the production and use of synthetic gases such as hydrofluorocarbons (used in refrigeration and air conditioning equipment and as solvents) and sulphur hexafluoride (used in electrical equipment).

In 2023, Tasmania’s IPPU sector accounted for 1.61 Mt CO₂-e, which was 19.3 per cent of the state’s emissions, excluding LULUCF (Figure 15). The emissions from IPPU increased by 0.20 Mt CO₂-e (13.8 per cent) between 1990 and 2023.

Emissions associated with the energy used in industrial production processes are accounted for in the electricity generation and direct combustion sub-sectors. For example, the emissions from cement manufacture may include combustion of fuels (coal or natural gas) used to heat kilns in the manufacturing process. However, these combustion-related emissions are reported in the energy sector (as direct combustion) and not with IPPU, which only includes the emissions from calcination.

Figure 15: Tasmanian emissions from IPPU - 1990 to 2023

Emissions from the waste sector are produced by the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter from solid waste in landfills and during the treatment of wastewater. Methane is produced by anaerobic digestion processes in wastewater treatment plants, and the nitrification and denitrification of urea and ammonia produces nitrous oxide emissions.

Emissions associated with the energy used in the management and transportation of waste are reported in the electricity generation, direct combustion, and transport sub-sectors.

In 2023, Tasmania’s waste sector accounted for 0.43 Mt CO₂-e, which was 5.1 per cent of Tasmania’s emissions, excluding LULUCF (Figure 16). The emissions from waste decreased by 0.14 Mt CO₂-e (25.2 per cent) between 1990 and 2023.

Figure 16: Tasmanian emissions from the waste sector - 1990 to 2023

The LULUCF sector includes emissions and sequestration (removals or carbon sinks) of greenhouse gases from direct human-induced land uses, land use changes and forestry activities. These activities include emissions and sequestration associated with:

• the clearance of forested land and plantations, and the conversion to other land uses (for example cropland, grassland, wetlands and settlements)
• the establishment of new forests and plantations planted on previously unforested land
• other practices that change emissions and sequestration, such as forest management, cropland management and grazing land management.

Emissions from fuelwood consumption, controlled burning, and wildfires on forest land, are also included in the LULUCF sector, as are removals associated with post-fire recovery. Carbon that is stored in harvested wood products is included as a carbon sink.

The combustion of fossil fuels associated with forestry activity and land management (for example diesel to run logging machinery and farming equipment) is accounted for in the direct combustion sub-sector of the energy sector. Non-CO₂-e emissions associated with livestock (such as methane from enteric fermentation) and cropping (such as release of nitrous oxide from agricultural soils) are accounted for in the agriculture sector.

In 2023, Tasmania’s LULUCF sector was a net carbon sink, resulting in minus 13.31 Mt CO₂‑e. This sink offset the emissions from other sectors that had a combined contribution of 8.37 Mt CO₂‑e (Figure 17). The emissions from LULUCF decreased by 24.54 Mt CO₂-e (218.4 per cent) between 1990 and 2023. From 1990 to 2011 the sector contributed as a source of emissions but now acts as a carbon sink.

More details on the emissions and removals for the LULUCF sub-sectors and sub-categories are provided in Attachment D.

Figure 17: Tasmania's emissions from LULUCF relative to other sectors - 1990 to 2023

Table 4: Emissions for Tasmania's sectors and selected sub-sectors for 2023

UNFCCC emissions reporting sector and descriptions

• The STGGI provides estimates of emissions sources and sinks across five sectors. The five sectors included in the STGGI are:
  • energy
  • IPPU
  • agriculture
  • LULUCF
  • waste.

• Due to the significance of the energy sector in Tasmania, this sector is disaggregated into three sub‑sectors:
  • transport
  • direct combustion (of fuels for stationary energy)
  • electricity generation.

Table 5: Description of the UNFCCC sectors and selected sub-sectors

Each year the Australian Government reviews how it calculates greenhouse gas emissions to ensure national and state inventories reflect the latest available data, improved modelling techniques, and any changes in sectoral classifications and estimation methodologies.

The Australian Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) administers a quality assurance/quality control plan to maintain the integrity of the data, identify any errors and omissions, and document inventory materials and quality control activities that relate to the National Inventory Report (NIR).

The 2023 NIRwas Australia’s third national inventory submission under the Paris Agreement. In line with international reporting requirements, emissions for each of the major greenhouse gases are presented as carbon dioxide equivalents using the 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs). In accordance with Paris Agreement requirements, the latest NIR applies 100-year GWPs contained in the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. As greenhouse gases behave differently in the atmosphere over time, converting emissions into CO₂-e allows the various gases to be compared equally. Previous NIRs submitted for the years 2013 to 2020 applied 100-year GWPs from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

DCCEEW develops recalculations for the Australian inventory in line with its Inventory Improvement Plan. This plan aims to improve transparency, accuracy, completeness, consistency and comparability, with a focus on those areas where the Australian community is introducing new emissions‑reduction approaches and technologies. The improvement plan also responds to international expert reviews and changes in international practice.

This revision process includes the recalculation of historical emissions data between 1990 and 2022, nationally and for each state and territory, to ensure that the estimates of emissions are accurate, transparent, complete, consistent through time, and comparable with those produced in other countries.

Methodological changes were made across all sectors in the 2023 STGGI. A summary of these changes is provided in Table 6 below. The main method improvements were made in the energy, agriculture, and LULUCF sectors.

Revised emission factors and plant-specific activity data were used for the Manufacturing Industries and Construction, and Gas Flaring sub-sectors of Energy.

The area of Australia considered wet enough for leaching was used to estimate nitrous oxide emissions from leaching and agricultural runoff. Additionally, a new enteric methane equation has been implemented for feedlot beef cattle.

Due to delays in implementing planned improvements to the remote sensing program for forest cover change, emissions for LULUCF sub-sectors that rely on the forest monitoring system for activity data are extrapolated from 2022-23 results to ensure completeness of reporting.

As a result of these recalculations, the emissions figures in the 2023 STGGI are not directly comparable to the figures published in the STGGI reports of previous years.

The recalculated data on Tasmania’s emissions show that:

• Tasmania’s emissions figure in the baseline year of 1990 is revised up 0.003 Mt CO₂-e to 19.55 Mt CO₂-e.
• Tasmania’s emissions figure in 2023 is revised down by 0.29 Mt CO₂-e to minus 4.63 Mt CO₂‑e.
• Tasmania’s emissions figures show that Tasmania achieved net negative emissions from 2014 onward. This is the same as in the 2022 STGGI.
• Tasmania has maintained net negative emissions for the ten reporting years from 2014 to 2023.

Table 6 presents a summary of the changes in Tasmania’s 1990 emissions and Table 7 presents a summary of the changes in Tasmania’s 2022 emissions by sector and energy sub‑sector reported between the 2022 STGGI and 2023 STGGI.

The tables show that the recalculations have resulted in changes across most sectors.

When compared with the 2022 STGGI, changes in the 2023 STGGI have had different effects in LULUCF emissions data since 1990. The changes have resulted in a small decrease in emissions in the LULUCF sector in 1990 and an increase in the sink provided by the LULUCF sector of approximately minus 0.29 Mt CO_2‑e in 2022.

Table 6: Revisions to Tasmania's emissions for 1990 by sector and energy sub-sector, following calculations

The LULUCF sector covers greenhouse gas emissions and removals associated with land management practices that impact the carbon stored in vegetation and soils. Since vegetation can absorb carbon from the atmosphere, this sector can function as a net sink of emissions.

The emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector have a significant impact on Tasmania’s net emissions, and the LULUCF sector currently offsets emissions from all other sectors.

Under the UNFCCC reporting framework, emissions from the LULUCF sector include emissions sources and sequestration (emissions removals or carbon sinks) of greenhouse gases from direct human-induced land use, land use conversions and forestry activities, as well as the impact of bushfires. The main driver of change in carbon fluxes across the Tasmanian landscape and the associated emissions relates to losses and gains of woody vegetation.

The UNFCCC reporting framework includes many sub-sectors, categories and sub-categories used to classify and disaggregate the various sources of emissions and removals in LULUCF. To make it easier to understand the hierarchy level of a particular sub-category and the sub-sector to which it belongs, the alpha-numeric descriptors for all LULUCF classifications are included, together with the name of the reporting category.

Under the UNFCCC reporting framework, emissions and removals for the LULUCF sector are attributed to the sub-sectors of:

• forest land (4.A)
• cropland (4.B)
• grassland (4.C)
• wetland (4.D)
• settlements (4.E)
• other land (4.F)
• harvested wood products (4.G).

The first five sub-sectors are further disaggregated into two components, a ‘remaining’ category and a ‘land converted to’ category (for example, the grassland sub-sector comprises the grassland remaining grassland (4.C.1) and land converted to grassland (4.C.2) categories).

The ‘remaining’ categories broadly include carbon stock changes and associated emissions and removals from human-induced activities, such as timber harvesting of native forests and plantations established before 1990, biomass burning, and farming and land management practices that result in changes to woody vegetation, woody crops and soils.

The ‘land converted to’ categories broadly include carbon stock changes and associated emissions and removals from human-induced activities that result in a conversion of land tenure, such as planting and harvesting of hardwood and softwood plantations established after 1990, environmental plantings, and natural regeneration and regrowth on cleared lands.

Methods to estimate emissions from biomass burning, nitrous oxide emitted from nitrogen mineralisation, and nitrogen leaching and run-off are applied across all land use classifications.

Australia does not report emissions in the other land sub-sector (4.F). These land tenures typically occur in central Australia and have minimal impact on biomass, dead organic matter and soil carbon.

Australia applies the stock-change approach for the harvested wood products sub-sector (4.G), which includes solid wood, paper and paperboard products in use and in solid waste disposal sites. The emissions from wood products that contribute to Tasmania’s greenhouse gas inventory are products in service life and consumed in Tasmania, including those imported and excluding those exported.

The forest land remaining forest land category (4.A.1)has a significant influence on the fluctuations in Tasmania’s LULUCF emissions since 1990 and comprises emissions and removals from changes in carbon stored in:

• fuelwood for domestic use (4.A.1.i.a)
• other native forests, which includes wilderness areas and national parks not previously subjected to harvesting. The main processes affecting emissions and removals from these forests include fire management practices and wildfires (4.A.1.i.c)
• harvesting activities in private native forests (4.A.1.i.d)
• harvesting activities in multiple use public forests, including regenerative burning after harvesting events (4.A.1.i.e)
• commercial hardwood and softwood plantations established before 1990 (4.A.1.i.f).

Harvested native forests (whether on private or public lands) are those forests comprising native species subjected to harvesting practices and natural regrowth. Various silvicultural techniques may be applied to initiate and promote particular growth characteristics. The forest lands included in this category are private native forests subject to harvest or regrowing from prior harvest and multiple-use public forests, and public forest areas which have been available for harvesting at any time since 1990.

As for all forests, the harvested native forests sub-categories are monitored for forest conversions. Areas that are identified as direct human-induced forest conversions are excluded from the forest land remaining forest land category from the time of the conversion event, and any harvesting losses associated with the conversion event are also excluded and reported only under the new land use category, to avoid double‑counting.

Predominantly, country-specific methodologies and Tier 3 spatially-explicit models and Tier 1 and 2 non‑spatially explicit models are used to estimate LULUCF emissions and removals. Australia’s land sector inventory system integrates spatially-referenced data with the Full Carbon Accounting Model (FullCAM), an empirically constrained, mass balance, carbon cycling ecosystem model, to estimate carbon stock changes and greenhouse gas emissions (including all carbon pools, gases, lands and land use activities).

FullCAM has been designed to comply with the IPCC Guidelines and to meet the Australian Government’s international treaty estimation and reporting commitments. It is designed to fully integrate the estimation of carbon stock changes and related emissions across the Australian landscape. The parameters of FullCAM have been informed by the latest empirical science and are continuously updated.

A comprehensive modelling approach to the estimation of carbon stock changes was originally chosen for the Australian land sector because of the absence of extensive forest inventory or measurement systems.

Spatial datasets for key disturbance events such as land clearing, forest planting and natural regeneration are derived from LandSat satellite imagery held by the Australian Geoscience Datacube (Digital Earth Australia). These datasets are processed by CSIRO Data61 and are informed by land use and vegetation datasets provided by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) and DCCEEW.

In the 2021 NIR and STGGI, the Australian Government introduced a spatially-explicit Tier 3 FullCAM model to estimate emissions from harvesting events in Tasmania’s multiple-use public forests. This approach was initially introduced to model the emissions and removals from harvesting in public forests in Victoria and New South Wales in the 2020 NIR and STGGI and was extended to public forests in Queensland for last year’s inventory.

The FullCAM spatial method for harvested native forests simulates carbon stock changes due to tree growth, timber harvesting and associated management, and fire. In the spatial method for harvested native forests, the type, location and date of timber harvesting activities in Tasmania are drawn from historical harvest data provided by Sustainable Timber Tasmania.

The non-spatially explicit estate modelling capability of FullCAM is used for both public and private forests in Western Australia, and for private native forests only in Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania. The area of native forests harvested in each broad forest type and age class is derived from roundwood log volumes removals for each state (ABARES, 2022) using an historical relationship between roundwood removals and harvest area data collated by state agencies.

Fire (biomass burning) is the principal form of natural disturbance that impacts terrestrial carbon stocks in Australia. Most Australian eucalypt forests are adapted to fire, and fires, whether wildfires or prescribed burns, are generally not stand-replacing (when stands of trees or forests are killed by rare high-severity wildfires). The fire‑adapted ecology of Australian eucalypt-dominated temperate forests leads to infrequent, extreme wildfires characterised by fire intervals on the decadal scale (occurring over a period of 10 years or longer).

All forest land is monitored for bushfires, harvesting and other land use change events. Where forest cover loss events are identified, these areas are attributed to either a direct, human-induced (anthropogenic) or a natural background (non-anthropogenic) land use change. The forest loss is monitored to determine whether this is temporary with subsequent post-event recovery or there is evidence of a permanent land use change.

Natural background emissions and removals caused by natural disturbance fires are considered to be caused by non-anthropogenic events (for example ignition from lightning strikes) and are beyond the control of, and not materially influenced by, the efforts of Australian authorities to prevent, manage and control them. These fires are considered to be part of the natural background of non-anthropogenic emissions and removals, which are assumed to average out over time and space.

Consistent with the IPCC accounting guidelines, two wildfire emissions estimates are reported. The first estimate includes the net emissions from non-anthropogenic natural disturbances and the second is the long run trend in net anthropogenic emissions from the wildfire disturbances and post-fire removals as the forest recovers and regrows.

In order to identify emissions from human activity, a statistical approach is applied to identify non‑anthropogenic natural disturbances on forest land remaining forest land (4.A.1). For these fires, the carbon stock loss and subsequent recovery from non-anthropogenic natural disturbances are modelled to average out over time, leaving emissions and removals from anthropogenic fires as the dominant result in the national inventory.

The IPCC accounting guidelines allow for the national emissions inventory and natural disturbance provisions to include an annual upper threshold on the impact of major bushfires. A statistical approach is applied by comparing each year’s emissions data with a national natural disturbance threshold for the calibration period 1989-90 to 2019-20. Once natural disturbance years are identified at a national level, the bushfires are spatially identified and the area burned tracked at the sub-national level. A state and territory level threshold is then applied and natural disturbance areas identified where both national and sub-national thresholds are exceeded.

This effectively means that the impact of wildfires in Tasmania can be excluded from the national inventory, provided the area burned is restored over an allocated monitoring period. If the original forest is converted to a different land use post-wildfire, the land use conversion and associated emissions are then recorded in both the national and the Tasmanian inventories.

This national definition of natural disturbances applies to wildfires on temperate forests and does not apply to fires reported as controlled burning (for example in temperate forests or in wet-dry tropical forests and woodlands). The impacts of human activities (for example salvage logging, prescribed burning, deforestation) are also excluded from the identification of natural disturbances. All fires on land converted to forest land (4.A.2) are treated as anthropogenic.

The identification of lands subject to natural disturbances and monitoring for forest recovery uses the Tier 3, Approach 3, modelling system using FullCAM, which has been designed to comply with the following safeguard mechanisms:

• the use of geo-located time series wildfire activity data
• coverage of all forest lands
• the ability to monitor if there is a permanent land use change on those lands following a wildfire event during the commitment period
• the inclusion of emissions associated with salvage logging in the accounting
• identification of lands where the natural disturbance is followed by another disturbance event, to avoid double counting.

FullCAM uses two remote sensing data sources. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer is used to identify and map natural disturbance impacts due to wildfire on forest lands, whereas Landsat data is used to map forest cover changes and identify permanent land-use changes across all forest lands.

FullCAM spatially tracks areas and carbon stocks at the 25 metre x 25 metre pixel-level on lands identified as experiencing natural disturbances in a particular year, until another anthropogenic activity occurs (for example non-natural disturbance fire, salvage logging or land use change).

Methane emissions from constructed reservoirs and dams (as opposed to naturally occurring lakes) are included in the flooded land remaining flooded land sub-category (4.D.1.2) for existing reservoirs or dams and land converted to wetland sub-category (4.D.2) for new reservoirs or dams. These reservoirs and dams in Tasmania include those used or established by Hydro Tasmania, TasWater and Irrigation Tasmania.

The combustion of fossil fuels associated with forestry activity and land management (such as diesel to operate logging machinery and farming equipment) is accounted for in the direct combustion (or stationary energy) sub-sector of the energy sector.

Methane emissions associated with livestock (such as enteric fermentation) and nitrous oxide emissions associated with cropping (such as the application of nitrogen fertilisers) are accounted for in the agriculture sector.

In 2023, emissions from Tasmania’s LULUCF sector were a sink of minus 13.31 Mt CO₂-e, which is a reduction of 218.4 per cent on 1990 levels.

The reduction in Tasmania’s LULUCF emissions since 1990 has been largely driven by:

• changes in forest land remaining forest land (4.A.1) and in particular changes in levels of timber harvesting in Tasmania’s native forests on private land (4.A.1.i.d) and in public multiple use forests (4.A.1.i.e)
• a reduction in emissions from the forest land converted to grassland sub-category (4.C.2.1) largely associated with lower rates of clearing of forested lands
• an increase in the carbon sink of land converted to forest land (4.A.2) from hardwood and softwood plantations, environmental plantings and natural regeneration and regrowth.

Table 9 below provides the change in emissions for key LULUCF sub-sectors and sub-categories from 1990 to 2023.

Table 9: Tasmania's LULUCF emissions by sub-sector and sub-category from 1990 to 2023

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2025, National, State and Territory Population Reference Period September 2024, Cat. No. 3101.0, Table 4, viewed 26 May 2025. www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/latest-release

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2024, Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, 2023-24 Financial Year, Cat. No. 5220.0, Table 7, viewed 26 May 2025. www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/national-accounts/australian-national-accounts-state-accounts/latest-release

Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) 2025, National Inventory Report 2023 Volume I, viewed 30 May 2025. www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-inventory-report-2023-volume-1.pdf

Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) 2025, State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2023, viewed 30 May 2025. www.greenhouseaccounts.climatechange.gov.au/