Climate change science

Climate Futures for Tasmania

Between 2010 and 2012, the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre produced the Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT) reports that presented the first fine-scale local climate information for Tasmania.

Through CFT modelling, we can understand how the Tasmanian climate is likely to change between now and 2100. The CFT Reports include reports on the impact of climate change on the general climate, agriculture, extreme weather events, extreme tide and sea level events, and severe wind hazard and risk.

The Tasmanian Government is currently running a grant program to produce a new set of fine-scale climate projections for Tasmania based on more recent global climate science data.

Climate Futures for Tasmania maps

• The Land Information System Tasmania LISTmap provides access to over 300 publicly-available map layers, such as geology, primary industries, biodiversity and climate change.
• The CFT climate change projections available on LISTmap include projections for three time periods, and for high and low carbon emissions scenarios. They include mean frost risk, annual rainfall, mean temperature change, pan evaporation change (measure integrates several climate elements), and relative humidity change.

Local government area climate profiles

Local-level climate information is available to assist councils, resource managers and businesses to better understand the expected climate changes in their area and adapt to these changes. Read the local government area climate profiles.

CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology

State of the Climate Report 2024

The State of the Climate 2024 report by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology shows Australia is experiencing significant climatic changes at an increasing pace. In Australia, projected impacts over the coming decades include changes in extreme heat events, rainfall patterns, sea level rise, and extreme fire weather.

The report found Australia's climate has warmed on average by 1.5 (± 0.23)ºC since national records began in 1910. It also found that:

• Global average concentrations of all the major greenhouse gases continue to rise and are at the highest levels on Earth in at least two million years. This is causing the climate to warm.
• Sea surface temperatures continue to increase, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events on land and in the oceans.
• Global mean sea levels continue to rise, and oceans around Australia are becoming more acidic, both at an accelerating rate.
• Large parts of Australia have seen an increase in extreme fire weather and longer fire seasons.
• Alpine regions have seen a decrease in snow depth and cover, and the number of snow days.
• Rainfall patterns and events are changing throughout Australia with most gauges experiencing a decrease in streamflow.
• The decline in global fossil fuel emissions of CO₂ in 2020 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will have a negligible impact on slowing climate change.

In 2015, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology released comprehensive information about observed and projected climate change in Australia on the Climate Change in Australia website

• The Southern Slopes Cluster Report summarises the key climate change projections for the Southern Slopes region of Australia which includes Tasmania.
• About Climate Analogues show how a changing climate will affect individual towns in Australia over the coming decades. The online tool matches a region's likely future climate conditions with the current climate experienced by another region, using average annual rainfall and maximum temperatures. For example, with an average temperature increase of 2° Celsius, the climate of Launceston will be more like Melbourne, Goulburn or Armidale by 2030.
• The Australian Climate Futures Tool uses the existing Climate Futures data and details the ‘best' and ‘worst' cases of the likely impacts of a changing climate, depending on the level of greenhouse gas emissions. The tool is designed to help users understand and apply climate change projections when preparing impact assessments and planning for climate change adaptation.

National Partnership for Climate Projections

The Australian Government is working with state and territory governments, CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, universities, and other nationally-funded initiatives, such as the Australian Climate Service, to develop a set of national fine-scale climate projections.

This collaboration is supported through the National Partnership for Climate Projections (the Partnership), which guides delivery of a nationally aligned, sustainable, and integrated approach to Australian climate projection science and projections information. The Climate Change Office in ReCFIT represents the Tasmanian Government on the Partnership.

Australia's future climate projections will be consistent with global climate model outputs (CMIP6), and the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. These new models will have higher resolution, and more accurately represent the climate system and future climate change, as they incorporate more advanced understanding of the climate and Earth system.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international organisation for the assessment of climate change. It is a scientific body managed by the United Nations and has 195 countries as members. Thousands of scientists from around the world contribute to the IPCC to review and assess the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information about climate change. It publishes assessment reports which provide a full scientific and technical assessment of the most up-to-date science on climate change, and Special Reports which assess specific issues. The IPCC also sets international guidelines for measuring and calculating greenhouse gas emissions.

IPCC Reports

The IPCC is currently in its sixth assessment cycle (AR6) which comprises the Assessment reports of its three Working Groups, three Special Reports, a refinement to the Methodology Report and the Synthesis Report. The AR6 reports can be viewed on the IPCC website.

AR6 Synthesis Report

The AR6 Synthesis Report was released on 20 March 2023. It provides an overview of the state of knowledge on the science of climate change, emphasising new results since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. The synthesis report confirms:

• Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020.
• Greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming in the near-term, and it is likely this will reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2035.
• Without a strengthening of policies, global warming of 3.2°C is projected by 2100 (medium confidence).
• Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe – with widespread loss and damage to both nature and people.
• The IPCC has very high confidence that the risks and adverse impacts from climate change will escalate with increasing global warming.
• To keep within the 1.5°C limit, emissions need to be reduced by at least 43 per cent by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, and at least 60 per cent by 2035.

AR6 Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change

On 4 April 2022, the IPCC released the Sixth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. It provides an updated global assessment of climate change mitigation progress and pledges, and examines the sources of global emissions. It explains developments in emission reduction and mitigation efforts, assessing the impact of national climate pledges in relation to long-term emissions goals.

The report finds that:

• Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, global warming will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and will be on track to exceed 2°C, which are the temperature goals established at the Paris Agreement.
• Current climate policies in place globally are projected to result in global warming of between 2.2°C and 3.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
• To contain warming to 1.5°C or lower, greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025.
• To have a 50 per cent chance of keeping global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century, global carbon dioxide emissions must halve by 2030, reach net zero in the 2050s and go net negative thereafter.

AR6 Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

On 28 February 2022, IPCC released the Sixth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. It assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels. It also reviews vulnerabilities and the capacities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt to climate change.

The report finds that:

• Progress on adaptation is uneven, incremental and reactive and there are increasing gaps between action taken and what is needed to deal with the increasing risks.
• These gaps are largest among lower-income populations.
• Opportunities for adaptation to many climate risks will likely become even more constrained and have reduced effectiveness should 1.5°C global warming be exceeded.
• For many locations around the world, capacity for adaptation is already significantly limited.

AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

On 9 August 2021, the IPCC released the Sixth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. The report provides the most up-to-date global assessment of the physical science associated with observed changes to the climate over the last 170 years and projections of future climate change. The report finds that all regions, including Australia, will continue to experience increases in climate change impacts, and the frequency and intensity of these impacts increases with each increment of additional warming.

In late 2018, the IPCC released the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. Key findings:

• human activities have caused approximately 1.0ºC of global warming above pre-industrial levels.
• limiting warming to 1.5ºC requires major and immediate transformation; and
• emissions will need to reach net zero by around 2050.

IPCC Emissions Scenarios

Future greenhouse gas emissions are the result of complex systems that are shaped by how societies and technology change over time. The IPCC develops emissions scenarios which are used in the analysis of possible climate change, its impacts, and the options to reduce emissions. Emissions scenarios are a set of assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions, land use and other factors that influence climate change. They provide alternative images, or storylines, of what may happen in the future. A detailed explanation of these scenarios is available in the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.