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    Climate change risk assessment

    Tasmania’s first statewide climate change risk assessment helps the government to prioritise actions that support adaptation to the impacts of climate change.

    The Risk Assessment was undertaken by Deloitte Pty Ltd in partnership with the Climate Change Office.

    This project has been coordinated with related national work programs, including the National Climate Risk Assessment.

    Tasmanian Government response

    The Tasmanian Government has developed a response to the Risk Assessment, which sets out a range of climate adaptation actions.

    Priority areas

    The Tasmanian Government response focuses on five priority areas to build resilience to the changing climate and make the most of transition opportunities.

    1. We will help Tasmanians understand the climate risks and opportunities in the risk assessment and how they might be impacted.
    2. We will support Tasmanians to access fit-for-purpose climate science data and information to prepare for the changing climate.
    3. We will build public sector capability to strengthen how we adapt and make the most of opportunities.
    4. We will facilitate collaborative partnerships to support adaptation action.
    5. We will monitor and learn as we go, recognising that adaptation is an iterative process.

    Risk Assessment methodology

    The Risk Assessment identifies and prioritises the following types of climate-related risks and opportunities:

    • physical climate-related risks and opportunities, including:
      • climate-related acute shocks, such as heatwaves, floods, bushfires, drought, coastal erosion, coastal storm surge
      • longer-term climate trends, such as temperature change, sea level rise, seasonal distribution and intensity of rainfall, incidence of frost, distribution of invasive species and diseases
    • climate-related transition risks and opportunities, which are driven by policy, regulation, technology development, reputation, and market shift, as a result of goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
    • climate-related complex, compounding, and cascading risks and opportunities, which involve multi-directional interactions between types of risk.

    The Risk Assessment uses a risk framework consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Reports (IPCC AR6).  The framework is based on a definition of risk explained in A framework for complex climate change risk assessment by Simpson et al. The framework considers climate risks to be a combination of a hazard or driver, exposure to that hazard or driver, vulnerability, and any existing response.

    Risks and opportunities

    The Risk Assessment identifies risks and opportunities across four domains.

    • Risks to inland water ecosystems and species due to extreme weather events and chronic changes
    • Risks to terrestrial ecosystems and species due to extreme weather events and chronic changes
    • Risks to coastal ecosystems and species (erosion related risk)
    • Risks to marine ecosystems and species due to extreme weather events and chronic changes
    • Risks to native ecosystems and species due to chronic changes enhancing biosecurity risks
    • Risks to alpine ecosystems and species due to chronic changes
    • Risks to natural domain from the mining of critical minerals
    • Risks and opportunities related to renewable energy development impacting biodiversity, inland water quality, marine ecosystems, and natural heritage
    • Opportunities to optimise waste systems to reduce impacts on the environment
    • Opportunities to support water quality and biodiversity

    • Risks to social cohesion and community wellbeing due to extreme weather events
    • Risks to mental health and wellbeing due to extreme weather events and chronic changes
    • Risks to physical safety, health and wellbeing due to extreme weather events and chronic changes
    • Risks to cultural heritage, including Aboriginal cultural heritage due to extreme weather events and chronic changes
    • Risks to social cohesion due to the inability of institutions and governance systems to effectively manage climate risks
    • Risks to social cohesion, and health and wellbeing due to insufficient services for a growing population (driven by renewable energy development and new industries)
    • Opportunities for increased skills and employment with business development for new and emerging industries that provide adaptation and resilience solutions
    • Opportunities for social cohesion, health and wellbeing through adaptation and resilience actions, including across domain co-benefits
    • Opportunities for increased skills and employment with renewable energy development and new industries
    • Opportunity to improve financial wellbeing, and health and wellbeing through improved energy efficiency in housing, particularly for low-income households

    • Risk to businesses and public organisations due to extreme weather events
    • Risks to national and international supply/distribution networks due to extreme weather events
    • Risks and opportunities to land-based primary sector due to extreme weather events and chronic changes
    • Risks and opportunities to ocean-based aquaculture and fisheries due to extreme weather events and chronic changes
    • Risks of slow, ineffective or no action on emissions reduction, limiting economic growth
    • Risks to businesses and public organisations due to supply chain costs as organisations adjust to a low carbon economy
    • Risks and opportunities for business through the implementation of new technology to reduce emissions (including fugitive/agriculture/ industrial/ fuel switching)
    • Opportunities for economic growth through renewable energy supply
    • Opportunities for business through new revenue streams available from carbon markets

    • Risks to healthcare and emergency services due to extreme weather events
    • Risks to the built environment due to extreme events and chronic changes
    • Risks to contaminated sites due to extreme events and chronic changes
    • Risks to stormwater and sewerage systems due to extreme events and chronic changes
    • Risks to ports and coastal infrastructure due to extreme events and chronic changes
    • Risks to transportation networks due to extreme events and chronic changes
    • Opportunities for public and active transport
    • Opportunities for improved flexibility within electricity infrastructure
    • Opportunities for infrastructure development to support the circular economy
    • Opportunities for lower emissions transport systems due to low emissions vehicles